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Who’s Financing the AI Boom? (With Bryan Whalen)

Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin open with the latest inflation data, where a hotter-than-expected core CPI reading raises questions about the Federal Reserve’s next moves. They discuss the broadening of inflation pressures, the jump in Treasury yields, and why investors may need to remain focused on quality as higher rates pressure more interest-rate-sensitive companies. Liz Ann also looks ahead to earnings season, with particular attention on whether companies can justify massive AI-related capital spending through productivity and returns.

Collin then speaks with TCW Chief Investment Officer Bryan Whalen about the unprecedented wave of spending on AI infrastructure and data centers. Whalen explains how hyperscalers are increasingly tapping the corporate bond market to finance that buildout, creating potentially attractive opportunities in their unsecured debt but also new risks in complex data-center financing structures. His central concern isn’t whether AI will be transformative, but whether investors are being adequately compensated for the possibility that adoption, economics, or the path of the build-out unfolds differently than markets expect.

Finally, Collin and Liz Ann look ahead to next week’s upcoming macroeconomic indicators and key data releases.

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. 

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors. 

International investments involve additional risks, which include differences in financial accounting standards, currency fluctuations, geopolitical risk, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets.

High-yield securities and unrated securities of similar credit quality junk bonds) are subject to greater levels of credit and liquidity risks and may be more volatile than higher-rated securities. High-yield securities are considered predominately speculative with respect to the issuer’s continuing ability to make principal and interest payments.

Mortgage-backed securities (MBS) may be more sensitive to interest rate changes than other fixed income investments. They are subject to extension risk, where borrowers extend the duration of their mortgages as interest rates rise, and prepayment risk, where borrowers pay off their mortgages earlier as interest rates fall. These risks may reduce returns.

All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see Schwab.com/IndexDefinitions.

The Bloomberg US High Yield Caa and Above Index  measures USD-denominated, fixed-rate, high-yield corporate bonds rated at least Caa3.

The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.

A hyperscaler is a large-scale cloud service provider or technology company that operates massive, globally distributed data center infrastructure to deliver computing, storage, and networking services.

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What Should You Do With Employee Stock?

Company stock can be a powerful wealth-building tool, but it can also create unexpected risks. Mark sits down with Sarah Buchardt to break down the most common forms of equity compensation and the key decisions employees face. Along the way, they explore diversification, taxes, and how to determine whether company stock still belongs in an investor’s portfolio.

After you listen:

·      Visit Schwab’s Equity Award Center for resources on the different forms of equity compensation, including sections like “Build Your Understanding of Equity” and “Discover What Equity Can Do for You.”

Financial Decoder is an original podcast from Charles Schwab.

If you enjoy the show, please leave us a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Reach out to Mark on X @MarkRiepe with your thoughts on the show.

Follow Financial Decoder on Spotify to comment on episodes.

Important Disclosures

This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.

For illustrative purposes only. Individual situations will vary and are no guarantee of future performance or success. Not intended to be reflective of results you can expect to achieve and are not intended to be, nor should they be construed as, a recommendation to buy, sell, or continue to hold any investment.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.

Vesting means ownership of your account or your entitlement to benefits. You are always 100% vested in any contributions that you make to your retirement plan, even if you leave your employer. However, depending on what type of retirement plan you have and the choices your employer has made about the benefits under the plan, vesting of employer contributions may be immediate or may take up to seven years. Your plan’s disclosure documents will contain the specific vesting schedule.

Equity Compensation is a very complicated topic, and planning raises complex tax, legal, estate planning, and investment management issues. An ECC is intended to help you understand the value of your company stock and options, provide wealth management education, and when appropriate will include investment advice relating to your equity compensation. All stock prices and tax calculations are hypothetical and are used for demonstration purposes only.

This information is not a specific recommendation, individualized tax, legal, or investment advice. Tax laws are subject to change, either prospectively or retroactively. Where specific advice is necessary or appropriate, individuals should contact their own professional tax and investment advisors or other professionals (CPA, Financial Planner, Investment Manager, Estate Attorney) to help answer questions about specific situations or needs prior to taking any action based upon this information.

All corporate names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

​Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.

The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

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What 26 Million Paychecks Reveal About the Economy (With Nela Richardson)

This week’s episode connects two of the biggest themes driving markets today: rising bond yields and a rapidly evolving labor market.

Collin Martin and Liz Ann Sonders discuss why higher Treasury yields matter far beyond the bond market. They explain how rising yields affect mortgage rates, borrowing costs, housing affordability, and stock market leadership. While higher rates create challenges for interest-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities, as well as lower-quality companies with significant debt burdens, they also create attractive opportunities for fixed income investors.

The featured interview is with ADP Research Chief Economist Nela Richardson, who offers a detailed look at the U.S. labor market through ADP’s payroll data. Richardson explains why ADP’s employment data can differ from government job reports, discusses emerging wage trends, and introduces ADP’s new Pay Insights research. She argues that inflation’s lasting impact on purchasing power helps explain weak consumer sentiment even as economic growth remains resilient. The discussion also explores manufacturing, labor shortages, overtime trends, job-switching premiums, and how demographic shifts are reshaping workforce dynamics.

The conversation concludes with a deep dive into artificial intelligence and employment. Richardson shares research suggesting that AI may be reducing opportunities for some younger workers in AI-exposed fields while enhancing productivity and employment prospects for more experienced workers. Despite concerns about disruption, she remains optimistic that a combination of technology adoption and skilled workers can drive the next wave of productivity growth, much as previous technological revolutions did.

You can read the ADP National Employment Report that Nela and Liz Ann discuss at http://www.adpemploymentreport.com/.

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.

High-yield securities and unrated securities of similar credit quality junk bonds) are subject to greater levels of credit and liquidity risks and may be more volatile than higher-rated securities. High-yield securities are considered predominately speculative with respect to the issuer’s continuing ability to make principal and interest payments.

All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see Schwab.com/IndexDefinitions

The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.

Negative correlation refers to investments that tend to move in opposite directions: when one rises, the other falls.

NERP is the National Employment Report Pulse from ADP: https://adpemploymentreport.com/

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Why Investor Positioning Matters More Than Ever (With Eric Liu)

This week’s episode explores the growing tension between resilient economic growth, cooling inflation data, and rising interest rates. Liz Ann Sonders and Collin Martin discuss the recent flattening of the Treasury yield curve, the latest inflation and GDP reports, and what higher yields mean for stocks and bonds. While inflation data showed encouraging signs of moderation, both Collin and Liz Ann note that risks remain, particularly from higher energy costs and the inflationary effects of AI-related investment spending.

The conversation then shifts to an interview with Vanda Research co-founder Eric Liu, who explains how investor positioning and capital flows can provide valuable clues about market direction over short-term horizons. Liu discusses the growing influence of retail investors, quantitative funds, and prediction markets, arguing that traditional ways of analyzing markets have become less useful as market leadership and participant behavior evolve. Despite geopolitical uncertainty and higher bond yields, he sees a supportive backdrop for equities due to neutral positioning, reduced crowding in markets, and the resilience stocks have shown in the face of recent shocks. The discussion also covers retail trading trends, emerging markets, market concentration, and why large-cap technology stocks remain the dominant market leadership group.

Finally, Collin and Liz Ann look ahead to next week’s upcoming macroeconomic indicators and key data releases. 

On Investing is an original podcast from Charles Schwab. For more on the show, visit schwab.com/OnInvesting.

If you enjoy the show, please leave a rating or review on Apple Podcasts.

Important Disclosures

Investors in mutual funds and/or ETFs should consider carefully information contained in the prospectus, or if available, the summary prospectus, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. You can request a prospectus via 800-435-4000. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.

The comments, views, and opinions expressed in the presentation are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Charles Schwab.

This material is intended for general informational and educational purposes only. This should not be considered an individualized recommendation or personalized investment advice. The securities, investment products and investment strategies mentioned are not suitable for everyone. Each investor needs to review an investment strategy for his or her own particular situation before making any investment decisions.

All expressions of opinion are subject to change without notice in reaction to shifting market, economic or political conditions. Data contained herein from third party providers is obtained from what are considered reliable sources. However, its accuracy, completeness or reliability cannot be guaranteed.

Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Investing involves risk, including loss of principal.

Diversification and asset allocation strategies do not ensure a profit and do not protect against losses in declining markets.

Performance may be affected by risks associated with non-diversification, including investments in specific countries or sectors. Additional risks may also include, but are not limited to, investments in foreign securities, especially emerging markets, real estate investment trusts (REITs), fixed income, municipal securities including state specific municipal securities, small capitalization securities and commodities. Each individual investor should consider these risks carefully before investing in a particular security or strategy.

Fixed income securities are subject to increased loss of principal during periods of rising interest rates. Fixed income investments are subject to various other risks including changes in credit quality, market valuations, liquidity, prepayments, early redemption, corporate events, tax ramifications, and other factors.

Commodity-related products carry a high level of risk and are not suitable for all investors. Commodity-related products may be extremely volatile, may be illiquid, and can be significantly affected by underlying commodity prices, world events, import controls, worldwide competition, government regulations, and economic conditions.

All names and market data shown are for illustrative purposes only and are not a recommendation, offer to sell, or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.

Forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only, may be based upon proprietary research and are developed through analysis of historical public data.

The policy analysis provided by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc., does not constitute and should not be interpreted as an endorsement of any political party.

The book(s) Superforecasters is not affiliated with, sponsored by, or endorsed by Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. (CS&Co.). Schwab has not reviewed the book and makes no representations about its content.

Indexes are unmanaged, do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses and cannot be invested in directly. For more information on indexes, please see Schwab.com/IndexDefinitions

The Schwab Center for Financial Research is a division of Charles Schwab & Co., Inc.

Inverse correlation refers to investments that tend to move in opposite directions: when one rises, the other falls.

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